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Learning curve calculator

Estimate how long and how much it costs to build a batch of a new product, knowing each unit comes out faster than the last, and find when the crew reaches standard time.

Pre-sizing and estimating tool: results do not replace design, calculations or reports signed by a licensed professional, nor verification against the applicable codes and standards.

Preliminary estimateRevised 11/02/2026
Learning curve

Typical ranges by type of work from Stewart (Cost Estimator’s Reference Manual); the list fills in the middle of the range. Your plant’s real rate, fitted from data (below), is worth more.

Batch and standard time

Units counted from the start of production. For the second batch of 100, use 101 to 200.

Fit the rate from actual times

Paste the unit number and the measured time (h). The log-log regression gives the rate and the first-unit time; "Apply" copies them to the fields above.

See what was read

Your inputs stay only on this browser and are not sent anywhere. Untick to delete them.

—Labor hours for the batch
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Time per unit over production

Each unit’s time under both models, with the same rate and first-unit time. The shaded band is the batch entered.

Tap the chart to see the values.

Doubling table

Unit time, cumulative average and cumulative total at each doubling of quantity, under both models (no plateau).

Fit to actual times (log-log scale)

Measured points and the fitted line. On log scales the learning curve becomes a straight line.

Tap the chart to see the values.

Next step

Take this page’s results to another calculator with the fields already filled in.

The calculation report gathers this page's inputs, results, equations, assumptions and references, with fields for project, engineer and revision. The full report also includes the charts and interpretations, in color. In the print dialog, choose Save as PDF.

Method, assumptions and references

Equations used

b = log₂(rate); e.g. 85% rate → b = log(0.85) ÷ log(2) = −0.2345
Crawford (unit): Tₙ = T₁ · nᵇ; total from u₁ to u₂ = Σ Tₙ
Wright (cumulative average): average up to n = T₁ · nᵇ; total up to n = T₁ · nᵇ⁺¹; unit n = T₁ · [nᵇ⁺¹ − (n − 1)ᵇ⁺¹]
With plateau: unit time = max(curve; standard time); unit reaching standard = smallest n with Tₙ ≤ standard time
Fit: ln(T) = ln(T₁) + b · ln(n) by least squares; rate = 2ᵇ

Assumptions and limits

  • Constant rate over production, same crew and method; long interruptions cause forgetting, which the model ignores.
  • It applies to human work; the machine-paced part of the cycle barely learns and should stay out of T₁ or get a rate near 100%.
  • For batches above 2 million units, the Crawford sum uses the integral approximation.
  • Typical rates are literature references: use the rate measured in your plant whenever possible.

Standards and technical documents

  • Wright, T. P. Factors affecting the cost of airplanes. Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences 3(4), 1936
  • Stewart, R. D.; Wyskida, R. M.; Johannes, J. D. Cost Estimator’s Reference Manual, 2nd ed. Wiley, 1995 (taxas típicas por tipo de trabalho)
  • Crawford, J. R. Learning curve, ship curve, ratios, related data. Lockheed Aircraft Corporation, 1944
  • Yelle, L. E. The learning curve: historical review and comprehensive survey. Decision Sciences 10(2), 1979
  • Stevenson, W. J. Operations Management, 14th ed. McGraw-Hill, 2021 (learning curves)

U.S. regulations

  • No legal standard governs learning curves; for US government contracts, FAR Part 15 cost analysis commonly accepts learning-curve estimates.

Frequently asked questions

What is a learning curve?

It is the rule, seen in production, that the time to make one unit falls by a fixed ratio every time cumulative quantity doubles. At an 85% rate, if unit 1 takes 10 h, unit 2 takes 8.5 h, unit 4 7.2 h and unit 8 6.1 h. It is used to quote batches of new products and plan launch labor.

What is the difference between Wright and Crawford?

In Wright’s model the rate applies to the cumulative average; in Crawford’s, to each unit’s time. At the same rate Wright gives lower times: in the example, the 100-unit batch takes about 455 h under Crawford and 420 h under Wright. Use the model the rate was measured with.

What learning rate should I use?

Best is to fit your own plant’s actual times by pasting them into the fitting box. Without data, use literature ranges: complex manual assembly and electrical operations, 75 to 85%; repetitive welding, about 90%; repetitive machining and stamping, 90 to 95%. The more machine-paced the work, the closer to 100%.

How do I read the example result?

With a 10 h first unit, an 85% rate (Crawford) and a 4 h standard time, standard is reached at unit 50. Units 1 to 100 add up to about 455 h, an average of 4.55 h, and labor cost at US$ 45 an hour is close to US$ 20.5k. The hours above standard, about 55 h, are the cost of learning.

What is the plateau at standard time?

In practice time does not fall forever: once the method settles, it levels off near standard time. With the plateau option, the calculator keeps the curve from dropping below that value. Turn it off to see the full theoretical curve.

Where does the first-unit time come from?

From the prototype or pilot batch, timed with the crew that will produce it. Without that, use the first batch of a similar product or multiply the estimated standard time by a start-up factor, usually 1.5 to 3 times in assembly.

What are the limits of the learning curve?

It assumes the same crew and method throughout production. Staff turnover, design changes or long stoppages push time back up and partly restart the curve. It also does not apply to the machine-paced part of the cycle, which barely learns.